Draft Kings – Finding Value

Originally featured on Rotowire.com:

Being able to extract value on a weekly basis is the key to winning in daily fantasy football. One of the most important metrics to look at is the dollars per point. You take the salary of a player and divide it by the number of points the player has scored to create your value metric.

You have to take into consideration the overall point total of a player, because lower priced players are always going to have a great dollar-per-point ratio, but that does you no good if those discount are projected to score eight points.

Last week, we looked at FanDuel, and this week we look at DraftKings. The salaries and scoring system are different, so there is value in seeing where players stack up on each respective site.

The way to use this data is to look at the current DraftKings salaries of players this week, and see who is closest to their yearly average and has a great matchup.

This is not a “PICKS” article, it is a research article designed to shed light on what the numbers are, what they mean, and how you can apply them in lineup building.

Visit DraftKings.com today to sign up. Low entry fees are available (and recommended for starters). Do your research, choose your players, and fine tune your skills. And hopefully, you’ll rank in the top 10-15 percent to take home some bacon.

Data is from DraftKings through Week 9.

Quarterback (Average points, Average Salary, Average $ per point, Multiplier (Points/Salary)*1000)

League Average – 17.7, $6791, $383, 2.6

Top 10 Value Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton – 20.4, $5900, $289, 3.4
Ben Roethlisberger – 22.6, $6833, $302, 3.3
Andrew Luck – 29.4, $9044, $307, 3.2
Carson Palmer – 21.0, $6980, $333, 3.0
Russell Wilson – 22.0, $7475, $338, 2.9
Tom Brady – 20.9, $7078, $338, 2.9
Mike Glennon – 16.9, $5733, $338, 2.9
Ryan Tannehill – 18.8, $6425, $340, 2.9
Peyton Manning – 25.9, $9250, $356, 2.8
Blake Bortles – 15.2, $5471, $360, 2.7

The surprise here is Orton, but we did mention him last week, too. He has come in and provided stability for the Bills. I would never use him in a cash game, but if you paired him with Sammy Watkins in a tournament that is optimal. Also, keep an eye on Fred Jackson coming back this week. This only helps Orton’s value in my opinion.

The other value quarterback I love on this list is Palmer. He has been very consistent and the Cardinals are always playing with a lead, which is a huge edge.

The two studs on the list, Luck and Manning, provide the best cash game options each week. Even when it looks like they have a bad matchup, they still put up a solid return.

Then you have two running quarterbacks in Wilson and Tannehill. Until recently, Wilson was a lock for cash games, but the trade of Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch disappearing for a few weeks has put him in a tough spot. Tannehill has really emerged, as he is running every week now. That said, I don’t like him this week going on the road against a very tough Lions defense.

Bottom Five Value Quarterbacks

Geno Smith – 11.7, $6238, $532, 1.8
Matthew Stafford – 18.6, $8075, $434, 2.3
Nick Foles – 18.0, $7800, $432, 2.3
Cam Newton – 17.1, $7288, $424, 2.3
Jake Locker – 14.8, $6100, $411, 2.4

Some of this group has been benched or is now injured, but both Newton and Stafford have been affected a great deal by a weak receiving corp. Don’t kid yourself on Foles, he was not playing well prior to his injury last week.

Running Back

League Average – 10.68, $4520, $423, 2.3

Top 10 Value Running Backs

Mark Ingram – 19.5, $4600, $234, 4.2
Ronnie Hillman – 16.2, $4050, $249 4.0
Ahmad Bradshaw – 16.8, $4867, $289, 3.4
Branden Oliver – 16.4, $4900, $297, 3.3
Arian Foster – 25.8, $7975, $308, 3.2
Jeremy Hill – 11.98, $3725, $310 3.2
DeMarco Murray – 25.4, $8089, $317, 3.1
Matt Forte – 26.1, $8313, $317, 3.1
Matt Asiata –12.5, $3989, $318, 3.1
Andre Ellington – 18.0, $5863, $325, 3.0

I know Ingram has been injured, but he has been a beast when healthy. He is still very cheap, but that is going to change soon. Hillman inherited the role we all thought Montee Ball would thrive in. Bradshaw ended up being incredible insurance for Trent Richardson, and in this Colts offense has been incredible. Notice all the value you can get at the running back position, you don’t have to spend $8000 and up right now unless it’s Foster/Murray/Forte.

Bottom 10 Value Running Backs

Maurice Jones-Drew – 2.7, $3467, $1260, 0.7
Shonn Greene – 4.1, $3317, $792, 1.2
Doug Martin – 7.4, $5340, $721, 1.3
Montee Ball – 9.3, $6550, $700, 1.4
Toby Gerhart – 6.5, $4229, $647, 1.5
Bishop Sankey – 6.3, $3913, $618, 1.6
Zac Stacy – 8.3, $5071, $609, 1.6
C.J. Spiller – 9.2. $5543, $600, 1.6
Chris Johnson – 7.9, $4544, $575, 1.7
LeSean McCoy – 12.9, $7025, $542, 1.8

Outside of McCoy, who I think represents a great buying opportunity this week, you can write off most of these running backs for the rest of the year.

Wide Receiver

League Average – 11.6, $4570, $723, 2.5

Top 15 Value Wide Receivers

Martavis Bryant – 22.5, $4250, $188, 5.3
Brandon LaFell – 17.6, $3943, $223, 4.5
Odell Beckham – 16.6, $4000, $240, 4.2
Golden Tate – 20.6, $5450, $263, 3.8
Emmanuel Sanders – 22.1, $5975, $270, 3.7
Jeremy Maclin – 22.6, $6250, $276 3.6
Andre Holmes – 13.1, $3671, $279 3.6
Mohamed Sanu – 18.0, $5113, $283, 3.5
Mike Evans – 15.0, $4329, $288, 3.5
Sammy Watkins – 17.0, $4913, $288 3.5
Antonio Brown – 26.6, $7889, $296, 3.4
T.Y. Hilton – 20.0, $6067, $303, 3.3
Allen Hurns – 12.4,$3767, $303, 3.3
DeAndre Hopkins – 15.8, $4922, $311, 3.2
Andrew Hawkins – 14.1, $4457, $314, 3.2

I left Bryant on the list even though it has only been two games. His impact has been huge and legit. LaFell came out of nowhere to take the top receiver role in New England, which we know can be a huge thing. This does not look to be a fluke. Tate will see his value drop as Calvin Johnson returns this week. I can’t buy on him until the salary drops.

From a cash game perspective, you need to roll with Brown every week. But there are a few other receivers that are now in that group – Maclin, Hilton and Sanders.

Bottom Ten Value Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson – 14.3, $8580, $597, 1.7
Wes Welker – 8.2, $4583, $558, 1.8
Brandon Marshall – 13.0, $7238, $554, 1.8
Cordarrelle Patterson – 9.2, $5078, $551, 1.8
Victor Cruz – 11.4, $5983, $522, 1.9
Michael Floyd – 10.0, $5150, $514, 1.9
Pierre Garcon – 12.0, $5944, $491, 2.0
Andre Johnson – 12.0, $5878, $488 2.0
Marques Colston – 10.4, $5013, $480, 2.1
Keenan Allen – 11.4, $5511, $479 2.1

Visit DraftKings.com today to sign up. Low entry fees are available (and recommended for starters). Do your research, choose your players, and fine tune your skills. And hopefully, you’ll rank in the top 10-15 percent to take home some bacon.